Will Chinese rocket piece fall around May 8?
After a Chinese rocket was sent into space at the end of April, debris
is indeed coming back to Earth.
However, the probability that they will injure an inhabitant is very
low.
Will the sky fall?
Debris from a Chinese Long March B rocket, namely the 21 tons of the
launcher's center stage.
It could make an uncontrolled re-entry to Earth around May 8, according
to the US Airforce Space Command Center.
But the probability that a piece of the Chinese launcher will crash on
your house is actually almost zero.
As Florent Deleflie,
astronomer explains.
Uncontrolled re-entries of space debris are a common practice in the
space industry: "we count about one such re-entry per week", says
Florent Deleflie.
Most debris ends up, namely in the ocean or in sparsely populated
areas.
On April 29, the Long March B launcher was used to put into orbit the first module of the new Chinese space station Tiangong.
The size is nearly 30 meters, and the weight, 21 tons of the rocket the stage that will enter the atmosphere.
Which are more important than those usually observed for other space
debris, Florent Deleflie concedes.
But all this does not seem to worry the astronomer for whom the collision
with a human being is too much unlikely.
"In the history of space conquest, it has never happened," he
says.
The information is confirmed by several sites specialized in space
issues.
At the end of April, China sent a rocket into space, and a large piece of
the rocket is well on its way back to Earth.
This 20-ton piece is moving at 27,000 km/h and its trajectory can even
be followed online.
According to experts, this rocket piece could enter the atmosphere on
May 8 or 9 Mai.
However, no one can yet predict where it will land, as the craft no
longer seems to be controlled by China.
In the United States, even the
Pentagon has confirmed that it is following the trajectory of this debris.
Little risk of being injured
The risk of being hit and injured by this debris is however extremely
low.
Even if the zero risk does not exist, two scientific reasons can
reassure us.
The planet Earth being made of 70% of water, there is a great chance
that the remains of the rocket will land in the water.
In addition, this piece of rocket will be largely destroyed in the
atmosphere.
According to the specialists it should be consumed at 80% to 90%.
Not the only space debris to return to Earth
This event is not at all surprising since, we count re-entries of space
objects every four days on Earth without any particular incident.
This piece of Chinese rocket is however one of the biggest to return on
Earth.
A precedent explains part of the concerns.:
China sent before this type of rocket (Long March 5B), long metal rods had
fallen back to Côte d'Ivoire, but without causing any injuries.
Risks, even in the ocean
However, the whole world remains on the lookout.
The United States said Wednesday it is tracking the launcher.
Therefore is not ruling out the possibility that the debris could crash
into a populated area.
We're hoping it will fall somewhere where it won't hurt person, in the
ocean or someplace like that. "
While the Earth is 70 percent water, which greatly minimizes the risk of
impacts with disastrous consequences.
They could also crash into a populated area or a ship.
Beijing and the Pentagon are reassuring
The Pentagon is closely following the trajectory of this 20-meter long
and as heavy as ton debris.
The possibility that it falls on a populated territory is extremely low.
But not excluded.
If at first the Chinese space and diplomatic authorities remained
silent, Beijing finally reacted this Friday, May 7.
That indicating that the risk of a crash on inhabited territory was
"extremely low".
"The majority of the components of the rocket will be burned and
destroyed during the reentry into the atmosphere."
According to Wang Wenbin; the spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of
Foreign Affairs.
China used to lose control
This is not the first time China has lost control of a space object
during a return to Earth.
In April 2018, the Tiangong-1
space laboratory had disintegrated when it entered the atmosphere, two years
after it had stopped working.
The authorities of China had denied having lost squarely control of the
laboratory.
China has been investing billions of Euros in the space program for numerous
decades.
It had sent its first astronaut
in space in 2003.
At the beginning of 2019, it succeeded in landing a spacecraft on the
far side of the Moon - a world first.
During the last year, the rocket brought back samples from the Moon and
finalized Beidou, its satellite navigation system.
According to the competitor to the American GPS, China plans to land a
robot on Mars next month.
Besides that, it has also announced that it wants to build a lunar base
with Russia.
In English CSS and in Chinese Tiangong "Celestial Palace", the
future Chinese space station will evolve in low earth orbit for 10-50 years.
